For millions of people building their lives in Britain including workers from the African and wider diaspora changes in the UK jobs market are felt quickly and personally. New official data suggests that the country’s labour market is losing momentum, with fewer people in work and wage growth slowing just weeks before Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first budget statement.
Figures released by the Office for National Statistics show that Britain’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1 per cent in the three months to October, up from 5.0 per cent in the previous quarter. This marks the highest level recorded since the three months to January 2021, at the height of the pandemic’s economic disruption.
The data adds to growing concerns about the health of the UK economy as households grapple with high living costs, employers become more cautious about hiring, and policymakers prepare for a potential shift in interest rates. The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday in an effort to stimulate economic activity.
While the unemployment rate is calculated using a survey that is currently being reviewed and improved by the ONS, other indicators in the latest release point to a clear cooling of the labour market. Private sector wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 3.9 per cent in the three months to October, down from 4.2 per cent in the previous period. This is the weakest pace of private sector pay growth since late 2020.
Public sector wages, by contrast, grew faster, rising by 7.6 per cent compared with 6.6 per cent previously. The ONS said this reflects pay agreements that were implemented earlier in the year, particularly in areas such as healthcare and education.
Overall regular wage growth across the economy stood at 4.6 per cent, slightly lower than the 4.7 per cent recorded in the third quarter and just above economists’ expectations. Even so, for many workers — especially migrants in lower-paid or insecure roles — wage growth continues to lag behind everyday costs such as rent, transport and food.
Further evidence of a slowdown came from payroll data provided by HM Revenue and Customs, which showed the number of people in payrolled employment fell by 38,000 in November. A previously reported drop of 32,000 in October was also revised down to 22,000, reinforcing the picture of a softening jobs market.
Financial markets reacted cautiously to the data, with the pound briefly rising against the dollar and euro before giving up those gains. Investors are now almost fully pricing in a quarter-point interest rate cut by the Bank of England, while closely watching for any signals about the direction of monetary policy into 2026.
Attention is also turning to inflation figures due on Wednesday, which are expected to show that price growth slowed slightly to 3.5 per cent in November from 3.6 per cent in October. However, inflation remains well above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, keeping pressure on household budgets.
For diaspora communities in the UK, particularly those working in the private sector, hospitality, logistics, care and service industries, these trends raise important questions about job security, wage growth and future opportunities. At Chijos News, we continue to follow how economic shifts in Britain affect migrants, families and workers trying to stay afloat in an increasingly uncertain environment.
