Madagascar’s presidency on Sunday warned of “an attempted illegal and forcible seizure of power,” as the country teeters on the edge of political crisis following the defection of elite military forces to a growing youth-led protest movement.
The statement, issued without further detail, came just one day after soldiers from the powerful Capsat unit—ironically the same force that helped President Andry Rajoelina seize power in a 2009 coup—called on fellow troops to defy orders and support demonstrators demanding sweeping political change.
The protests, which began on September 25 over chronic water and electricity shortages, have rapidly evolved into a full-scale challenge to Rajoelina’s legitimacy. Demonstrators now demand his resignation, an apology for state violence against protesters, and the dissolution of the Senate and electoral commission—institutions they accuse of enabling authoritarian rule.
In a dramatic escalation, video footage circulated Saturday showing Capsat soldiers abandoning their barracks to escort thousands of protesters into May 13 Square, a historic flashpoint for political uprisings that had been cordoned off by security forces.
The presidency’s vague warning of a coup attempt has done little to clarify the situation, and critics argue it reflects a government increasingly out of touch with the scale of public anger. “This is no longer just about utilities—it’s about accountability, legitimacy, and the right to protest without being shot at,” said one civil society observer.
According to United Nations estimates, at least 22 people have been killed and 100 injured since the unrest began. The government disputes these figures, with Rajoelina claiming only 12 fatalities—a discrepancy that has further eroded public trust.
On Sunday, a Reuters witness reported three injuries after gunfire erupted near the Capsat barracks, though other witnesses said clashes had subsided. The prime minister and army chief of staff have since issued calls for calm and dialogue, but their appeals appear increasingly hollow as the military’s loyalty fractures and the streets swell with defiant youth.
The protests, inspired by Gen Z-led movements in Kenya and Nepal, reflect a broader regional trend of youth mobilization against entrenched political elites. In Madagascar, where democratic institutions remain fragile and economic hardship is widespread, the stakes are especially high.
As the crisis deepens, observers warn that the government’s reliance on vague threats and appeals for unity may no longer suffice. Without meaningful reform and accountability, Madagascar risks sliding into a dangerous cycle of repression and resistance.
