Experts report that the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel on Tuesday was larger, more complex, and involved more advanced weaponry than previous strikes in April, resulting in increased stress on missile defenses and allowing more warheads to breach those defenses.
While debris from the over 180 missiles is still being collected and analyzed, it appears that the latest attacks featured Iran’s Fattah-1 and Kheybarshekan missiles, both of which have an estimated range of about 1,400 kilometers (approximately 870 miles). Iran claims that these missiles have maneuvering warheads, complicating interception efforts, and use solid fuel, enabling quick launches with minimal warning.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, explained that the shorter preparation time for launch means the missiles can strike simultaneously, further stressing defense systems. The maneuverability of the warheads increases their accuracy, allowing them to hit specific targets once they breach defenses.
In the April attack, some Fattah-1 missiles were deployed, which were largely countered by U.S. and Israeli missile defenses. However, that strike mainly relied on liquid-fueled Emad ballistic missiles, which had a 50% failure rate and only enough accuracy to target areas larger than 1 kilometer in diameter. In contrast, Iran asserts that its advanced ballistic missiles have a “circular error probable” of about 20 meters, meaning half of the missiles will land within that distance of their intended target. Fabian Hinz, a research associate for defense and military affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), noted that these are Iran’s most advanced missiles capable of reaching Israel.
DEBRIS FROM THE ATTACK
Videos from the recent attack showed missile re-entry vehicles—designed to carry warheads—or fiery debris falling to the ground. Some missiles were intercepted, including several before re-entering the atmosphere. The Pentagon reported that two U.S. Navy destroyers launched about a dozen interceptors in response to the Iranian ballistic missiles.
Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace highlighted that direct comparisons to the April strikes are challenging due to changes in both the weaponry and the attack structure. The April strikes involved slow-moving drones and cruise missiles, giving defenders more time to react.
Davis also pointed out that reports of damage from the recent attack have been limited, with Israel initially reporting no fatalities. However, he warned that future Iranian attacks could be even more sophisticated, potentially coordinating ballistic missile strikes with cruise missile and drone attacks. Davis concluded, “If the Iranians launch another much larger attack, it is likely that more missiles will get through. I don’t think we’ve seen the maximum scale of attack by any means.”
