An additional 6,000 children could die every day from preventable causes over the next six months as the Covid-19 pandemic continues to weaken health systems and disrupt routine services, Unicef said on Wednesday.
The estimate is based on an analysis by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, newly published in The Lancet Global Health journal. Based on the worst of three scenarios in 118 low- and middle-income countries, the analysis estimates that an additional 1.2 million under-five deaths could occur in just six months, due to reductions in routine health service coverage levels and an increase in child wasting.
These potential child deaths will be in addition to the 2.5 million children who already die before their fifth birthday every six months in the 118 countries included in the study, threatening to reverse nearly a decade of progress on ending preventable under-five mortality.
Some 56,700 more maternal deaths could also occur in just six months, in addition to the 144,000 deaths that already take place in the same countries over a six-month period.
โUnder a worst-case scenario, the global number of children dying before their fifth birthdays could increase for the first time in decades,โ said Unicef executive director Henrietta Fore. โWe must not let mothers and children become collateral damage in the fight against the virus. And we must not let decades of progress on reducing preventable child and maternal deaths be lost.โ
In countries with already weak health systems, Covid-19 is causing disruptions in medical supply chains and straining financial and human resources. Visits to health care centres are declining due to lockdowns, curfews and transport disruptions, and as communities remain fearful of infection. In a commentary to the Lancet report, Unicef warns these disruptions could result in potentially devastating increases in maternal and child deaths.
The paper analyzes three scenarios for the impact of reductions in lifesaving interventions due to the crisis on child and maternal deaths. It warns that in the least severe scenario, where coverage is reduced around 15 per cent, there would be a 9.8 per cent increase in under-five child deaths, or an estimated 1,400 a day, and an 8.3 per cent increase in maternal deaths. In the worst-case scenario, where health interventions are reduced by around 45 per cent, there could be as much as a 44.7 per cent increase in under-five child deaths and 38.6 per cent increase in maternal deaths per month.
In addition to the estimated potential rise in under-five and maternal deaths described in the Lancet Global Health Journal analysis, Unicef is deeply alarmed by the other knock-on effects of the pandemic on children.
This week, Unicef is launching #Reimagine, a global campaign to prevent the Covid-19 pandemic from becoming a lasting crisis for children, especially the most vulnerable children โ such as those affected by poverty, exclusion or family violence. Through the campaign, Unicef is issuing an urgent appeal to governments, the public, donors and the private sector to join Unicef as we seek to respond, recover and reimagine a world currently besieged by the coronavirus.
Learn about the #Reimagine campaign here: www.unicef.org/reimagine
