Prime Minister Boris Johnson was set to tell German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday that unless she agrees to change the Brexit deal, Britain will leave the European Union on Oct. 31 without one.
More than three years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, it is still unclear on what terms โ or indeed whether โ the blocโs second largest economy will leave the club it joined in 1973.
Johnson, a Brexiteer who won the premiership a month ago, is betting that the threat of โno-dealโ Brexit turmoil will convince Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron that the EU should do a last-minute divorce deal to suit his demands.
But with just over 10 weeks left until the United Kingdom is due to leave, the EU has repeatedly said it will not renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement struck by Johnsonโs predecessor, Theresa May, and that it will stand behind member state Ireland.
Merkel said in Leipzig that she would discuss with Johnson โhow we can get the most friction-free British exit from the European Union possible, as we must fight for our economic growthโ.
She has promised to discuss โpractical solutionsโ to the Irish border insurance policy or โbackstopโ that Johnson says is unacceptable โ but said the Withdrawal Agreement will not be reopened.
Ahead of his first foreign trip as prime minister, Johnson said the EU was being โa bit negativeโ, but that a deal could be done. If not, he said, the United Kingdom would leave without one.
โA TOUGH BARGAINโ
In Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been enthusiastic about Brexit but critical of Mayโs negotiating strategy, offered Britain help while criticising the EU.
โThey have not treated the UK very well,โ he said. โThatโs a very tough bargain they are driving, the European Union. We are going to see if we can work something out.โ
Once the nightmare scenario on the extreme edge of probability ranges, a โno-dealโ Brexit is now seen as a realistic possibility by both governments and investors.
Amid the political turmoil in London, little is clear. The alternatives are a delay, a last-minute deal, an election or even cancelling Brexit.
Ahead of Johnsonโs meeting with Macron on Thursday, an official in Macronโs office who declined to be named said France believed โno-dealโ was now the most likely scenario:
โIf the United Kingdom considers that having a backstop is absolutely excluded, that is its right, but in that case it limits the possibility of reaching an agreement.โ
The official said there was โnot the thickness of a cigarette paperโ between the French and German positions, and even pressure from Trump would not change the EUโs position.
With talk of an election swirling in Britain, an online survey suggested Johnsonโs tougher stance on Brexit was dramatically reviving his Conservative partyโs fortunes.
The Kantar opinion poll put the Conservatives on 42%, up from 25% in May, when the last comparable poll was taken, and the main opposition Labour party on 28%, down from 34%.
ECONOMIC SHOCK?
Wrenching the United Kingdom out of the EU without a deal means there would be no arrangements to cover everything from post-Brexit pet passports to the trade arteries that pump capital, food and car parts between the two neighbours.
Many investors say a โno-dealโ Brexit would send shock waves through the world economy, hurt the economies of Britain and the EU, roil financial markets and weaken Londonโs position as the pre-eminent international financial centre.
With such a gulf between the British government and the other 27 members of the EU โ whose economy combined is worth $15.9 trillion โ some diplomats said Johnson was using international diplomacy for domestic politics.
Some fear that Johnson is setting up a confrontation with the EU that will allow him to reap more domestic political capital from what he will cast as EU intransigence.
โSpinning gold from straw has never yet worked. That is also true of Brexit,โ said Germanyโs Europe minister, Michael Roth. โPeace in Northern Ireland and the integrity of the internal market are non-negotiable for the EU.โ
Johnson wrote a four-page letter to European Council President Donald Tusk on Monday asking the EU to axe the Irish border โbackstopโ. EU leaders in Brussels and the other 27 member states issued a swift and unanimous rejection.
REUTERS
