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| Last chance for Prime Minister Theresa May and Britain for an orderly path out of the Brexit maze |
Prime Minister Theresa May won legally binding Brexit assurances from the European Union on Monday in a last ditch attempt to sway rebellious British lawmakers who have threatened to vote down her divorce deal again.
Scrambling to plot an orderly path out of the Brexit maze just days before the United Kingdom is due to leave on March 29, May rushed to Strasbourg to agree additional assurances with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.
Brexiteers in Mayโs party have accused her of surrendering to the EU and it was not clear if the assurances she agreed would be enough to win over the 116 additional lawmakers she needs reverse the crushing defeat her deal suffered on Jan. 15.
โToday we have secured legal changes,โ May said in a late night news conference in Strasbourg beside Juncker, exactly 17 days before the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU.
โNow is the time to come together to back this improved Brexit deal and to deliver on the instruction of the British people,โ May said.
May announced three documents โ a joint instrument, a joint statement and a unilateral declaration โ which she said were aimed at addressing the most contentious part of the divorce deal she agreed in November โ the Irish backstop.
The backstop is an insurance policy aimed at avoiding controls on the sensitive border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland, though some British lawmakers worry it could trap the United Kingdom in the EUโs orbit indefinitely.
On news of the breakthrough, sterling, which has see-sawed on Brexit headlines, jumped 0.8 percent to $1.3250 in Asian trade and rallied to the strongest against the euro since mid-2017.
(1) the negotiated withdrawal agreement titled โAgreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Communityโ;
(2) the framework for the future relationship titled โPolitical Declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdomโ;
(3) the legally binding joint instrument titled โInstrument relating to the Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Communityโ, which reduces the risk the UK could be deliberately held in the Northern Ireland backstop indefinitely and commits the UK and the EU to work to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by December 2020;
(4) the unilateral declaration by the UK titled โDeclaration by Her Majestyโs Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning the Northern Ireland Protocolโ, setting out the sovereign action the UK would take to provide assurance that the backstop would only be applied temporarily; and
(5) the supplement to the framework for the future relationship titled โJoint Statement supplementing the Political Declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Irelandโ, setting out commitments by the UK and the EU to expedite the negotiation and bringing into force of their future relationship.
LAST CHANCE?
After two-and-a-half years of haggling with Britain over Brexit, Juncker cautioned that this was the last chance for Britain.
โThere will be no third chance,โ he said. โThere will be no further interpretations of the interpretations; no further assurances of the re-assurances โ if the meaningful vote tomorrow fails.โ
โIt is this deal or Brexit might not happen at all,โ he said. He said in a letter to EU summit chair Donald Tusk that if Britain didnโt leave by the May 23-26 elections, it would have to elect its own EU lawmakers.
The United Kingdomโs tortuous crisis over EU membership is approaching its finale with an extraordinary array of outcomes still possible, including a delay, a last-minute deal, a no-deal Brexit, a snap election or even another referendum. The country voted to leave the EU in a 2016 plebiscite.
The British parliament on Jan. 15 voted to reject Mayโs deal by 230 votes, the biggest defeat for a government in modern British history.
BREXIT VOTES
May has promised lawmakers a vote on her deal on Tuesday. The motion put forward by the government said that the joint instrument โreduces the riskโ that the United Kingdom would be trapped in the backstop.
The immediate reaction was cautious from Brexit-supporting lawmakers in her own party and from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party which props up her minority government.
After Cabinet Office Minister David Lidington, who Mayโs de facto deputy, updated the British parliament on the talks, Brexit supporting lawmaker Steve Baker told BBC Radio:
โItโs not for the first time that David has had to put a very good gloss on something which falls short of what was expected.โ
Lidington said that Britain and the EU had agreed an instrument to prevent the EU seeking to โtrapโ Britain in any backstop, work to replace the backstop by December 2020 and confirming pledges Britain has made for a lock on new EU laws applying to Northern Ireland.
He also said that they had agreed a second document, a joint statement to expedite the negotiation of the future relationship.
The DUP said it would study the documents.
May was instructed by lawmakers to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements. The opposition Labour Party said she had fallen far short of her promises to parliament.
If the backstop comes into force and talks on the future relationship break down with no prospect of an agreement, May said the unilateral declaration would make clear there was nothing to stop London from moving to leave the backstop.
BREXIT IN PERIL?
The British governmentโs top lawyer, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, is due to set out his legal analysis of the assurances ahead of Tuesdayโs vote. Many pro-Brexit lawmakers will wait to see that before deciding how to vote.
If she loses the vote, May has said lawmakers will get a vote on Wednesday on whether to leave without a deal and, if they reject that, then a vote on whether to ask for a limited delay to Brexit.
Senior British government ministers have warned rebellious lawmakers that if Mayโs deal is voted down then there is a chance that Brexit could be thwarted.
Brexit will pitch the worldโs fifth largest economy into the unknown and many fear it will serve to divide the West as it grapples with both the unconventional presidency of Donald Trump and growing assertiveness from Russia and China.
Supporters of Brexit say that while the divorce might bring some short-term instability, in the longer term it will allow the United Kingdom to thrive and also enable deeper EU integration without such a powerful reluctant member.
