The Presidency on Wednesday said that the just released Gross Domestic Products (GDP) figures for the 2016 second quarter by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) despite showing temporary decline is a hopeful expectation in the countryโs economic trajectory.
The Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, Dr. Adeyemi Dipeolu made the remarks while speaking on the latest NBS report in a statement issued by the Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, Laolu Akande.
Apart from the growth recorded in the agriculture and solid mineral sectors, he said that the Nigerian economy in response to the policies of the Buhari presidency is also doing better than what the IMF had estimated with clear indications that the second half of the year would be even much better.
According to him, the Buhari presidency will continue to work diligently on the economy and engage with all stakeholders to ensure that beneficial policy initiatives are actively pursued and the dividends delivered to the Nigerian people.
He said: โThe just recently released data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Gross Domestic Product declined by -2.06% in the second quarter of 2016 on a year-on-year basis.
โA close look at the data shows that this outcome was mostly due to a sharp contraction in the oil sector due to huge losses of crude oil production as a result of vandalisation and sabotage.
โHowever, the rest of the Q2 data is beginning to tell a different story. There was growth in the agricultural and solid minerals sectors which are the areas in which the Federal Government has placed particular priority.
โAgriculture grew by 4.53% in the second quarter of 2016 as compared with 3.09% in the first quarter. The metal ores sector showed similar performance with coal mining, quarrying and other minerals also showing positive growth of over 2.5%. Notably also, the share of investments in GDP increased to its highest levels since 2010, growing to about 17% of Gross Domestic Product,โ he said
Despite the manufacturing sector not yet out of the woods, he said that it is beginning to show signs of recovery.
He said: โNevertheless, the data already shows a reduction in imports and an increase in local produced goods and services and this process will be maintained although it will start off slowly in these initial stages before picking up later.
โThe inflation rate remains high but the good news is that the month-on-month rate of increase has fallen continuously over the past three months.
โUnemployment remains stubbornly high which is usually the case during growth slowdowns and for reasons of a structural nature.
โThe picture that emerges, barring unforeseen shocks, is that the areas given priority by the Federal Government are beginning to respond with understandable time lags to policy initiatives. Indeed, as the emphasis on capital expenditure begins to yield results and the investment/GDP numbers increase, the growth rate of the Nigerian economy is likely to improve further.
โAs these trends continue, the outlook for the rest of the year is that the Nigerian economy will beat the IMF prediction of -1.8% for the full year 2016.
โThe IMF had forecasted a growth of -1.8% for 2016, however the economy is performing better than the IMF estimates so far. For the half year it stands at -1.23% compared to an average of -1.80% expected on average by the IMF.
โWhat is more, it is likely the second half will be better than the first half of 2016. This is because many of the challenges faced in the first half either no longer exist or have eased,โ he said.
