UK PM’s Johnson’s Brexit offer “can’t fly”, economy appears to have tipped into recession

UK PM’s Johnson’s Brexit offer “can’t fly”, economy appears to have tipped into recession

by Joseph Anthony
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Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives to deliver his keynote speech at the Tory Party conference in Manchester | Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s last ditch Brexit proposal “can’t fly” because it an unworkable move backwards that leaves Britain and the European Union far apart, a senior European Union official said on Thursday.

Just 28 days before the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU, both sides are positioning themselves for a delay or else a disorderly no-deal Brexit. Johnson says he wants a deal but insists there can be no delay to Brexit beyond Oct. 31.

The cool reception from Brussels to Johnson’s proposal indicates just how far apart the two sides are on the first departure of a sovereign state from the EU project, which was forged from Europe’s ruins after World War Two.

A European Parliament Brexit group believes that Johnson’s proposals “do not represent a basis for an agreement”, according to the draft of a statement seen by Reuters ahead of release later in the day.

Separately, a senior EU official said Johnson’s proposal “can’t fly”, largely because it did not offer a solution for the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland once the UK province has left the EU’s customs union.

“It does not contain any decent solution for customs. And it erects a hard border on the island of Ireland,” said the senior EU official.

“It would have to be fundamentally reworked,” an EU diplomat said, adding that time was short before the bloc’s leaders meet in Brussels in two weeks for a make-or-break Brexit summit on Oct. 17-18.

In Dublin, which is crucial to any deal, Junior Finance Minister Patrick O’Donovan said Johnson’s offer was the basis for discussions but not of an agreement.

Johnson made what he said was his final Brexit pitch to the EU on Wednesday, offering a possible compromise on the Irish border that initially drew a cautious welcome by the EU.

Johnson went further than many expected on the most contentious issue – the border between British-ruled Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland – with a proposal for an all-island regulatory zone to cover all goods, replacing the so-called backstop arrangement he says he cannot accept.

Besides the concession, however, Johnson proposed giving Northern Ireland institutions the ongoing power to abide by or exit the regulatory zone – a possible step too far for Ireland and the EU.

“CREATIVE AND FLEXIBLE”

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said it was now up to the bloc to help avert a disorderly Brexit on Oct. 31.

“It is now for the EU to respond and also show they can be creative and flexible. This sets out the broad landing zone,” he said on Thursday, adding that London was prepared to negotiate the details.

When asked if there was enough time to deliver a Brexit deal, Barclay said: “We don’t want an extension and we do believe there is enough time.”

“We are focused on getting a deal because we think this is the best way forward,” Barclay said. “These are serious proposals and clearly we need to have a negotiation with the EU on taking them forward.”

Johnson says he wants to strike a deal at an Oct. 17-18 EU summit. A law passed by his opponents in parliament forces him to delay Brexit unless he strikes a deal, but Johnson has said further delay is “pointless and expensive”.

Amid so much pessimism about the possibility of a deal in just weeks, many diplomats say a phoney struggle is underway between London and Brussels to apportion blame.

Meanwhile Britain’s economy appears to have tipped into recession as firms brace for the risk of a disruptive Brexit in just a few weeks’ time, according to a survey which showed the dominant services sector took an unexpectedly sharp downturn last month.

September’s IHS Markit/CIPS services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell by more than any economist predicted in a Reuters poll, tumbling to a six-month low of 49.5, below the 50 level that divides growth from contraction.

Combined with even weaker manufacturing and construction surveys earlier in the week, September’s all-sector PMI sank to 48.8 from 49.7, its lowest since the month after the referendum decision to leave the EU in June 2016, and before that 2009.

IHS Markit said the figures suggested Britain’s economy shrank by 0.1% in the three months to September.

“Coming on the heels of a decline in the second quarter, (this) would mean the UK is facing a heightened risk of recession,” IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson said.

Britain’s economy shrank by 0.2% in the three months to June – the first decline since 2012 – and a second quarterly contraction would meet the recession definition used in Europe.

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