For many Nigerians and other diaspora families living in the UK, winter is more than a change in wardrobe. It is a season that quietly tests health, heating budgets and resilience. Now, new data from the UK Health Security Agency has put numbers to what many communities already feel each year.
The UKHSA has published its first Cold Mortality Monitoring Report, revealing that 2,544 deaths in England were associated with cold weather across three cold episodes between November 2024 and January 2025. The most severe period, a six-day stretch in early January, was linked to 1,630 deaths alone. Two shorter cold spells, one in November and another in early January, were associated with 421 and 493 deaths respectively.
Behind these figures are families, hospital wards, care homes and households navigating the sharp reality of British winter. For diaspora communities, particularly those from warmer climates, the health impact of cold is often underestimated.
The report shows that older people were most affected, with risk rising steeply with age, especially among those aged 85 and over. Men accounted for 1,439 of the cold-associated deaths, compared with 1,117 among women. Circulatory diseases, including heart conditions, were responsible for the highest number of cold-related deaths, with 834 deaths linked to cardiovascular causes.
Most deaths occurred in hospitals, with 975 recorded in these settings. However, the increase in risk during cold weather was proportionally higher for people living in care homes and for those who died at home. This detail matters for families caring for order parents or relatives indoors, especially in households where heating costs are a concern.
One of the most important findings is that the health impact of cold is not always immediate. Mortality peaks around five days after temperatures drop and remains elevated for up to nine days. Heart-related deaths often rise several days after exposure to cold, while respiratory and infection-related deaths can show even longer delays. In other words, a short cold snap can have consequences that unfold over weeks.
To estimate the impact of cold weather, UKHSA analysed daily death registrations alongside Met Office temperature data. Rather than relying on death certificates, which do not list “cold” as a cause, the agency used a statistical model that tracks how mortality risk increases as temperatures fall and how those effects accumulate over several days. This episode-based approach provides a near real-time picture of how specific cold spells affect health under current pressures on the population and the NHS.
The findings also sit within broader winter health surveillance. UKHSA monitors influenza, COVID-19, RSV, norovirus and other seasonal threats, ensuring that Cold Weather Alerts and preparedness plans reflect real health risks. This data complements long-term analyses by the Office for National Statistics, which looks at average cold-related mortality over decades. While the two sets of figures are not directly comparable, together they offer a fuller understanding of how winter continues to shape health outcomes in England.
Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA, described cold weather as a serious and preventable public health risk. He emphasised that even short periods of low temperatures can lead to significant increases in mortality, often days or weeks after the temperature drop. The aim of the report, he said, is to ensure that cold weather alerts and preparedness measures are grounded in clear evidence of health impact.
For diaspora readers, especially those supporting order parents or relatives in the UK, the risk groups identified in the report will feel familiar. People aged 65 and over, those with cardiovascular or respiratory conditions, individuals living with dementia and people in poorly insulated homes or experiencing fuel poverty are most at risk. These are realities that cut across communities, but they can be particularly acute in migrant households balancing rising energy bills with other financial responsibilities, including remittances.
When comparing recent winters with the previous five-year period, the findings suggest that people may now be more vulnerable to cold, with the risk of death rising more sharply as temperatures fall. This potential shift may reflect an ageing population, a higher burden of chronic disease and ongoing pressure on health and social care services. It also raises uncomfortable questions about housing quality, heating access and awareness of cold-related health risks.
Importantly, vulnerability to cold may be increasing even if average winter temperatures are not necessarily getting colder. Home insulation, reliable heating, timely access to healthcare, vaccination uptake and public awareness all influence outcomes. For diaspora families, this reinforces the importance of practical steps such as checking in on older relatives during cold spells, ensuring heating systems are working and responding quickly to symptoms of heart or respiratory distress.
The full Cold Mortality Monitoring Report has now been published and complements UKHSA’s annual heat mortality reports. Together, they contribute to the evidence underpinning England’s Adverse Weather and Health Plan.
At Chijos News, our diaspora health coverage focuses on what these national statistics mean for real people navigating life between cultures and climates. Winter in the UK is not simply a seasonal inconvenience. For thousands of families, it is a public health issue with measurable consequences.
As temperatures fluctuate in the months ahead, the message from this report is clear. Cold weather remains a serious risk, but it is not an invisible one. With awareness, preparation and targeted support for the most vulnerable, many of these deaths are preventable. For diaspora communities building new lives in Britain, understanding that reality is not fearmongering. It is protection.