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As the prices of crude continue to leap, due mainly to shortages in the United States and recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, experts have predicted further rise to $90 per barrel, from $78 in the global market.
An energy analyst with Goldman Sach Group, Damien Courvalin, said: โWhile we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts.
โBrent could hit $90 a barrel by year-end as the market is in a bigger deficit than many realise.
โThis deficit will not be reversed in coming months, in our view, as its scale will overwhelm both the willingness and ability of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC+ to ramp up.โ
Also, an energy expert Dr Bala Zaka, said: โWith the successful vaccination and other initiatives against the coronavirus pandemic, there are indications that the demand for crude oil would continue to increase, thus causing prices to rise.
โConsequently, I am optimistic that the market would witness much stability, even as OPEC+ continues to find lasting solutions to issues affecting the market.โ
However, in its September 2021 Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR, OPEC, stated: โWorld oil demand growth in 2021 remains unchanged from last monthโs assessment, showing growth of 6.0 mb/d despite some offsetting revisions.
โOil demand in 3Q21 has proved to be resilient, supported by rising mobility and travelling activities, particularly in the OECD.
โAt the same time, the increased risk of COVID-19 cases primarily fuelled by the Delta variant is clouding oil demand prospects going into the final quarter of the year, resulting in downward adjustments to 4Q21 estimates.
โAs a result, 2H21 oil demand has been adjusted slightly lower, partially delaying the oil demand recovery into 1H22.
โGlobal oil demand in 2021 is now estimated to average 96.7 mb/d. In 2022, oil demand is expected to robustly grow by around 4.2 mb/d, some 0.9 mb/d higher compared to last monthโs assessment.
โRevisions were driven by both the OECD and non-OECD, as the recovery in various fuels is expected to be stronger than anticipated and further supported by a steady economic outlook in all regions.
โOil demand in 2022 is now projected to reach 100.8 mb/d, exceeding pre-pandemic levelsโ.
